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I was active in the front office of the New York Jets in 1993, the last time we had an uncapped year. Back then, teams spent close to 70 percent of their revenue on players, but that's a very small number compared to today.
In 1994, when the cap was in place, I managed the player salary cap and the ceiling was just under $35 million for 53 players and a five-man practice squad. The salary cap was $123 million for 53 players and an eight-man practice squad in 2009.
What's important to remember as we head into 2010 free agency is that teams were required to spend a minimum of $111 million on player salaries last year. There's a chance that 60 percent of the teams in the NFL will be much closer to $100 million in team salaries this year without a floor in an uncapped year.
On the eve of free agency, there are only four teams with more than $100 million in total cash scheduled for players. The Cowboys, Vikings, Seahawks and Redskins have exceeded the century mark, but some of them may be under $100 million fairly soon.
In this uncapped year, don't expect a wild spending spree by owners, and also don't expect big signing bonuses to be awarded after the first handful of players are signed.
Here are 10 things to watch in the 2010 free agency period:
Close to 100 players switch teams and make significant money in doing so in most free agent seasons. The pool of good free agents has been drastically reduced this year, with more than 200 young players who were originally supposed to be unrestricted now restricted because of the rules governing the uncapped season. A 26-year-old player with four good years under his belt is a prime candidate for a big payday. But he will not be on the market this year.
2. Don't expect teams to go after restricted free agents
Clubs have a number of options when tagging restricted free agents. They can drop a $3.2 million tender and get a first- and third-round pick if another team signs that player. There's a modified tender to just get a first-round pick, another one for a second-round pick and another that gives the club the right to match a deal with no compensation if they elect to pass. I spoke with a number of GMs at the combine and they expect very little action in the restricted free agent pool because of the compensation. As one smart GM said, "If we see three or four restricted deals, that will be a lot." Remember, restricted free agency ends before the draft.
3. Some teams will not work free agency until after the draft
Clubs will be too smart to go after the large number of 30-year-old free agents in this year's class. Some teams are simply going to see how they do in the draft before they sign older veterans to fill in holes on the roster. There is no real sense of urgency to throw money at players who will be on hold waiting for the draft. As one high-powered agent said to me, "My guys are going to get a rude awakening in the month of March."
4. Expect a lot of short-term deals
I doubt there will be a lockout in 2011, but the chance still exists. For that reason, clubs are not going to throw deals with big signing bonuses or guaranteed money in future years at players who may not be playing football in 2011. The other reason for short-term deals is the age of many unrestricted free agents. For example, the top running backs in free agency -- Chester Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, and Thomas Jones are all over 30. No team is going to offer long-term deals to players on a sharp decline of their careers.
5. The Final Eight Rule
The Saints, Colts, Vikings and Jets were the final four teams standing in 2009. They really can't sign any big free agents unless they lose a player and he signs for big money. For example, if Taylor signed with a team other than Minnesota for $6 million a year, the Vikings could then sign an unrestricted free agent for up to $6 million a year. Players like L.T. and Westbrook, who were released, do not factor into this rule and could be aggressively pursued by the final four. The next four teams left standing -- San Diego, Baltimore, Arizona and Dallas -- can each sign one big free agent for $5.8 million, but have restrictions after that. Don't expect much action from the final eight teams standing in last year's postseason.
6. Don't expect big signing bonuses
Even though the NFL is entering an uncapped year, there is a rule for renegotiations of existing deals that limits teams from raising contracts by more than 30 percent, unless they use a signing bonus. I don't believe we will see teams use big signing bonuses like we did in the 1990s when there was no cap.
7. More players to enter free agency because of bonus clauses
I went through most of the player contracts a week ago and there will be a decent number of them hitting the market just before their big roster or option bonuses come due. We already know that Jones and Lito Sheppard will be released because of bonus clauses in their contracts. Without mentioning names, which would be unfair to the players or clubs that may be working on renegotiating contracts, I expect at least 10 starters in the league to be released and join the pool of talent looking for work.
8. Teams encouraging players to test down market
I got a real sense from talking to head coaches and GMs at the combine that they are not afraid to let players test the free-agent market. The worst thing a club can do in sensitive negotiations is act as the messenger of what a player's value is, especially when the athlete thinks he's worth a lot more. For example, the Chargers have no hold on Darren Sproles but want him back. Sproles is going to find out what his street value really is, and I expect the Chargers to have a solid chance to get him re-signed. Sproles knows the deck has been cleared with the release of L.T., and San Diego may be the best place for him in the end. However, the Chargers will quickly go in another direction if some team overpays Sproles.
9. The draft class will affect free agency
I left the combine realizing this will be a very good draft class. There will be a nice injection of underclassmen in this draft, and as many as 18 could go in the first round. That pushes a lot of really good players down into the second and third rounds. The money the players in the top three rounds will get is going to eliminate opportunities for unrestricted free agents.
10. Restricted players will be no-shows
Get ready for restricted free agents to protest this spring by not showing up to offseason programs. One player told me he has no intention of showing up until June 15th -- the day a club can pull back a high tender of more than $3 million and give the player 110 percent of what he made last year and still retain his rights. Don't overreact to the no-shows; they will be at the club facility sooner or later. The more I think about it, the more I believe teams should start their offseason program after the draft in May and run it right through July 3. Camps start in August now anyway.
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