Coaching rumors abound as regular season closes

The coaching buzz is in full swing. The speculation is that there won't be as many changes as there were last season -- 11 including the interim spots in San Francisco and Oakland becoming permanent -- and that the number of teams looking for coaches could be closer to between five and seven. Economics -- having to pay fired coaches as well as a new staff -- could have something to do with some of the decisions. Still, change is a certainty, as is one unexpected move.

We know there will be changes in Washington and Buffalo. From what I've been told, add Cleveland to the mix, although new football chief Mike Holmgren might not get rid of Eric Mangini right away.

Where things get interesting:

Jacksonville: Coach Jack Del Rio got an extension before last season. While the Jaguars were still mathematically alive going into Week 17, things are very unsettled there and Del Rio's future is hardly a certainty, sources have said. A loss to Cleveland in the finale could be the final straw.

Carolina: Coach John Fox would like an extension but the Panthers haven't broached it going into his final year. This could turn into a stare down that ends up with Fox as a lame-duck coach in 2010, although that wouldn't seem healthy. A buyout is possible and could be in the works, if Carolina can persuade someone like Bill Cowher to come on board. If Fox hits the open market, he won't be unemployed for long.

Houston: This is as dicey at Jacksonville. Owner Bob McNair has said more than once that this team will make the playoffs. It hasn't. The Texans are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball but they can't win in their division. If you don't win in your division, you don't get to the playoffs. If Houston somehow gets to the postseason, Gary Kubiak should be safe. If not, he could be gone or be forced to hire a new defensive coordinator. No top notch coordinator will come on board, though, if Kubiak is a short-timer -- unless that DC is a coach in waiting (Gregg Williams, Mike Zimmer). Cowher's name is very hot as a possible replacement.

Chicago: By all accounts, Lovie Smith is safe but some assistants are going to get blown out (offensive coordinator Ron Turner is a near certain casualty). It also won't be shocking, according to sources, if Smith is let go. A loss this weekend would drop the Bears to 6-10. They don't have a first- or second- round draft pick. If Smith stays, look for Chicago to try and lure Tennessee offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who coached Jay Cutler in Denver, sources said. If Smith is fired, Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier could be at the top of the replacement list.

Oakland: Tom Cable went through more drama than quarterbacks this season. Nobody knows what the Raiders will do but players seem to like Cable and the direction things are pointed in. Still, this is the Raiders.

Tampa Bay: There is increasing talk that Raheem Morris will be one and done, although the Bucs have played better defense since he's taken over and have played hard down the stretch. This is a franchise where economics could come into play. They will spend to replace Morris, but only on Cowher (maybe Fox if he becomes available). Otherwise, Morris could be retained through 2010.

Dallas: Despite the Cowboys making the playoffs, there is very little confidence among NFL personnel men that Wade Phillips is safe. A victory over the Eagles on Sunday would give Dallas the NFC East title but a playoff victory would be more important for Phillips' security. The bigger issue could be who owner Jerry Jones would get to replace Phillips. Mike Shanahan seems bound for Washington. Cowher is available. There remains talk of a Jon Gruden-to-Dallas possibility, but I continue to be told he will do TV for at least one more season.

Seattle: Two words are routinely uttered by NFL folks and agents regarding what's going on there: A mess. With no one in charge, coach Jim Mora could twist for awhile. Depending on who is hired as general manager, Mora could be safe. The injury-riddled team, 5-10 entering the finale, is getting old; a total overhaul could be in order.
Candidate pool

Other than Cowher and Shanahan, who is all but certain to be coaching the Redskins by Tuesday morning, here are a few guys who could be replacing the coaches who have been let go.

Frazier: Minnesota's defensive coordinator is said to be high on several teams' lists. His Tony Dungy-like way of dealing with people is attractive. He's also been ascending for a few years in coaching circles.

Zimmer: He has made every defense he's coached (Dallas, Atlanta, Cincinnati) better and has incredible respect around the league. His experience could work against him, however, since so many teams are going after young coaches. Still, sources said teams want to talk to him. His contract with the Bengals expires at the end of the season.

Jason Garrett: The Cowboys' offensive coordinator has lost some of his sparkle. However, he was impressive on the interview circuit the past few years and is still regarded as a top candidate.

Winston Moss: The Packers' assistant head coach has a presidential-like presence and commands your attention, according to one general manager. Impressions of Moss sound a lot like those of Mike Singletary, except Moss has more coaching experience.

Mike Martz, Brian Billick: Both Super Bowl-winning coaches could be back in play, depending on the number of jobs that come open. The Bills would like an offensive-minded leader and these two proven coaches fit the bill.
Potential surprise?

Do not be floored if Patriots coach Bill Belichick decides to step down. This is nothing more than speculation, so it doesn't need to be made into any more than that. Plus, this rumor has surfaced among league gossips at this time the past few seasons. If this is the surprise coaching move this season, no matter the warning, I would be floored.