Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Lineup questions, keepers on the minds of owners in Week 17


I have to bench Peyton Manning this week, but who should I start in his absence from Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez? -- J. DesJardins

Michael Fabiano: Ryan is without question the best option of the three quarterbacks you've listed. He's coming off a strong stat line against the Bills, throwing for three touchdowns in a blowout win. Next he'll face a Buccaneers defense that's allowed an average of close to 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That makes him a much better choice than Manning, Hasselbeck or Sanchez in Week 17.

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Thanks for all your advice this year, but my team didn't do you proud! I'm hoping to rebound next year. I'm in a 50/50 keeper league that gives points for punt and kickoff return yardage and touchdowns. We get to keep a minimum of three and a maximum of four players. Who out of the following do I need to hang on to for next season: Tony Romo, Joseph Addai, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson and DeSean Jackson? -- F. Ajose, Minneapolis, Minn.

M.F.: Glad to help. Sorry you didn't take home a championship! I think your best keeper options at Romo, Mendenhall and Jackson. Romo has had a solid and underrated season for fantasy owners, and Mendenhall has established himself atop the Steelers' depth chart. At 22, he is a great option for keeper leaguers. Jackson, an explosive playmaker, is also a strong long-term option in an Eagles offense that loves to throw the football. The fact that you get points for return yards and touchdowns makes Jackson even more valuable in this keeper format.

In our league, we are able to keep one player from the previous year's lineup. Which running back should I retain: Steven Jackson or Ray Rice? -- A. Henderson, Reno, Nev.

M.F.: Jackson is coming off a solid season, but the lack of talent around him hurts his stock in both seasonal and keeper leagues. While changes are coming in St. Louis -- I'd expect a new starting quarterback and more skill position players added on offense -- Jackson still doesn't have the same value of Rice. The Rutgers product, 22, proved this season that he can be a featured back at the NFL level. He does lose some goal-line work in the team's backfield rotation, but Rice more than makes up for it with his combined skills and production as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. As a result, Rice is the one to retain. Look for him to be a first rounder in all 2010 drafts.

I need to start three wide receivers in Week 17 from Devin Aromashodu, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Chad Ochocinco and Sidney Rice. Who would you start? Thanks! -- T. Maffia, Jefferson City, Mo.

M.F.: The three wideouts to start are Holmes, Johnson and Rice. Holmes has a great matchup against the Dolphins, and Johnson is a solid choice against the Bears and their questionable pass defense. I also like Rice, who should put up great numbers against a Giants team that hasn't been able to stop the pass all season. Ochocinco is a major fantasy risk this week, as he faces Jets CB Darrelle Revis at the Meadowlands. Ochocinco could also be rested for part of Week 17 since the Bengals don't have much to play for in terms of the postseason.

Hi Michael, how many quarterbacks do you think will be worth a first-round pick in 2010 drafts? -- D. Drake, Davie, Fla.

M.F.: As someone who has always taken running backs in the first round, I'm envisioning some changes for my own strategies in 2010. Backs will still rule Round 1 overall, but I think Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will all be worth a first-round pick next season. Furthermore, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub and even Tony Romo could come off the board in the second round. The times they are a changing in fantasy football, as the NFL has clearly become more of a passing league and is putting less emphasis on featured backs.

I can't believe this is a legitimate fantasy question based on where these players were ranked back in the preseason, but would you keep Miles Austin or Calvin Johnson? -- L. Marcos, England

M.F.: The NFL and fantasy football can be unpredictable! Austin, a preseason sleeper on NFL.com, has increased his value in both seasonal and keeper leagues as the top option in the Cowboys' pass attack. But despite his success, I'd still keep Johnson ahead of him. Sure, Megatron was one of the biggest disappointments of the season. But quarterback issues and an injured knee were mostly to blame. Johnson is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, and his rapport with Matthew Stafford will only grow and improve with time.

Michael, I need to retain two players from Drew Brees, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne and Antonio Gates. Help me out! -- P. Danson, Detroit, Mich.

M.F.: You have some solid options, but I'd have to retain Brees and Rice. The Saints quarterback is a virtual lock for 4,000-plus passing yards and 30-plus total touchdowns every season, and he's one of the few players in the league that can single-handedly win you a fantasy matchup in a given week. I also like Rice, for the reasons I stated above in a previous answer. He has all the tools to be a fantasy star into the future.

What would be your perfect offensive scoring system? The guys in my league want to make some changes to our standard scoring league and figured we'd ask the expert. What categories do you prefer? Thanks and Happy New Year! -- P. Langston, Middleton, Wis.

M.F.: Well, my perfect scoring system is part traditional and part new wave. I reward six points for all touchdowns and don't put a ton of stock into defenses. Sure, defenses are important, but scoring systems shouldn't allow them to outscore the top fantasy players on a regular basis. I saw that happen a lot this season, and to me it doesn't make sense. I would also reward 0.05 points for every passing yard and 0.1 points for every rushing and receiving yard, rather than one point for every 25 passing yards and 10 rushing and receiving yards. So if you have Chris Johnson and he rushes for 129 yards, you would receive 12.9 fantasy points rather than just 12 points. I also reward one point for all receptions and reward players, not defense and special team units, for return yards and touchdowns. Much like passing yards, I reward 0.05 points for every return yard and six points for all return touchdowns. Hope this helps -- Happy New Year to you as well!

Hope you had a Merry Christmas! I've been following you since back in the CBS days. I remember you started a celebrity league with all of the CBS Sports talent. Do you plan to do that at the NFL? I'd love to hear guys like Rich Eisen and Warren Sapp talking fantasy football! Anyways, which running back should I sit this week from Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson? I need to start two. Thanks! -- L. Stevens, Baltimore, Md.

M.F.: Funny, I remember your name from back in the CBS days! You're a huge Ravens fan right? Anyways, I will be starting an NFL Network talent league in 2010, so look out for it. Rich, Warren, Rod Woodson, Marshall Faulk, Jamie Dukes, Alex Flanagan, Lindsey Soto and I are a few of the names who will be involved. I'm envisioning a 12-team league, and you'll be able to view all of the rosters, transactions, matchups and standings throughout the season. It should be a lot of fun. To answer your second question, I'd start Charles and Forte. The Broncos have been a bit vulnerable to the run at home this season, and Forte is a great option against the Lions. The fact that Benson and Tomlinson could be rested in Week 17 makes both of them far less attractive from a fantasy perspective. Keep them on the bench.

Simple lineup question for Week 17: Which quarterback do I start from Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning? -- J. Marsales, Austin, Texas

M.F.: The Steelers still have a shot to reach the NFL's postseason, so Roethlisberger is a safe option. He also has a tremendous matchup against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed a combined five touchdown passes to the last two quarterbacks they've faced, and their defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. I like Manning as well, but Big Ben is the better of the two options.

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