Gates still tops Davis among fantasy football's best tight ends

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Why do you have Antonio Gates ranked above Vernon Davis at tight end? You give them the same auction value, but Davis has a far better FPA rating. Didn't you say the FPA rating was best suited for making decisions between equally valued players? - L. Karr, Champaign, Ill.
Michael Fabiano: While it's true that Davis has a significantly more attractive FPA rating and the same auction value as Gates, the 49ers tight end doesn't have close to the same statistical track record. Gates has been a fantasy star for the better part of the last six seasons, while Davis has had one monster season in his career. He averaged just 26 receptions for 377 yards with a combined nine touchdowns before 2009, and I don't see Davis repeating the 13 touchdowns he had last season. It's hard not to rank him among the elite tight ends based on his 2009 success, but again, Gates is a better investment because of his consistent success.
In light of the imminent Thomas Jones release, I see you have Shonn Greene ranked just ahead of Frank Gore at the running back position. Should I now keep him over Gore? It seems very risky to give up a proven commodity for an unproven player. - J. Law, Collinsville, Va.
M.F.: Gore remains a more attractive keeper if your league rewards points for receptions, but Greene is the better option in long-term leagues that utilize a standard scoring system. He is about three years younger than Gore and has far less wear and tear at the NFL level. Gore has also finished an average of 10th among running backs in fantasy points on NFL.com over the last two years. Thomas Jones, the man Greene will replace in the Jets offense, had an average rank of 4.5 in that time. I know Jones and Greene are different backs, but Greene has the potential to be just as good ... or better. Greene will also be running behind one of the league's best offensive lines in an offense built to the run. On the flip side, the 49ers were dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts after the first 13 weeks of 2009. Don't get me wrong, I like Gore. I just think Greene has a much higher ceiling.
I need to retain one player from Steven Jackson and Jamaal Charles in a PPR league. I think Jackson has the edge overall, but I would lose a first-round pick to keep him while Charles would cost me a 16th-round selection. If I keep Charles, I'd have the third selection in the re-draft with a chance to re-acquire Jackson or land an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. I'm just worried that Charles will be a one-season wonder. Help! - M. Alardman, Dallas, Texas
M.F.: I don't see how you can pass on Charles for that sort of price tag. He finished in the top 15 in fantasy points among running backs on NFL.com even though he started only 10 games last season. He also caught 40 passes out of the backfield, so it's pretty evident that he's an asset in PPR formats. I also like the fact that Charles has the best FPA rating of any running back in the league, and the presence of coordinator Charlie Weis should just accelerate his development at the NFL level. Jackson is a top-10 fantasy back, but it's still hard to trust him in a punchless Rams offense with major questions at quarterback. Clearly, Charles is the player to retain in this situation.
Our league allows us to keep two players, but we but lose the draft pick for the round that player was taken. My best options are Maurice Jones-Drew (Round 1), Andre Johnson (Round 2), Matt Schaub (Round 5), Ray Rice (Round 10), and Shonn Greene (undrafted). Who should I retain? - T. Gilyard, Fargo, N.D.
M.F.: It's hard to release a superstar wide receiver like Johnson back into the pool of available players, but keeping Jones-Drew and Rice is recommended. That's a tough backfield to pass on. It also allows you to focus on a quarterback and wide receivers in the earlier rounds of the re-draft. I do have one question, though. What would you lose if you decided to retain Greene? Since he was undrafted, do you not lose a draft pick? Or do you simply lose a pick in the final round of the re-draft? If this is a standard league with no points given for receptions and keeping Greene would cost you next to nothing, you might want to consider retaining him ahead of Rice.
I need to keep seven players in a PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, one flex player and two wide receivers. Who would you retain from Tom Brady, Ronnie Brown, Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, Dwayne Bowe, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Randy Moss and Roddy White? - A. Franssen, Richmond, Va.
M.F.: Retain Brady, Brown, Johnson, McCoy, Fitzgerald, Moss and White. Brady gives you one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football, and your backfield should be strong with Johnson, McCoy and Brown as a 1-2-3 punch. You'll also have a star-studded cast of wideouts with Fitzgerald, Moss and White. I'd rotate those receivers as a flex starter due to the PPR format.
I'm in a competitive 12-team keeper league that rewards half a point for receptions. My two keepers will be Matt Schaub and Jamaal Charles. I've come to realize that having dominant wide receivers is a huge part of success in PPR leagues. I believe Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Roddy White will be the best wideouts available in the re-draft. How would you rank these players in such a league's scoring system? - C. Stirling, Boston, Mass.
M.F.: Jackson loses luster in PPR leagues despite his talents and playmaking skills. In fact, he's not even a top-10 fantasy wideout based on the reception numbers he's posted in his first two seasons. I would keep Marshall. He's posted 100-plus catches in each of the last three seasons and averaged nearly seven receptions per game since 2008. There have been numerous reports that Marshall is on the trade block, though, so be sure to keep tabs on him this offseason. If his role on a new team could affect his targets, I'd keep White instead.
What sort of value do you think Julian Edelman will have next season? If Wes Welker is out for awhile coming off knee surgery, I can see Edelman being a PPR monster. What are your thoughts? - J.C. Donnelly, Alpharetta, Ga.
M.F.: Edelman will have sleeper value, albeit short-term value, if Welker is forced to miss the start of next season. Edelman showed flashes of statistical potential after Welker went down, catching 10 passes for 103 yards in the 2009 regular-season finale against Houston. Edelman also hauled in six passes, two for touchdowns, in the Patriots' postseason loss to the Ravens. Edelman could be as much as a borderline No. 2 or 3 fantasy wideout as a prominent member of the passing game. But again, his value will be limited once Welker returns.
What do you think of C.J. Spiller's potential at the NFL level? What sort of fantasy value will he have if he ends up in Seattle? It seems that's the most popular destination I've seen for him in mock drafts. - L. Schumacher, Escondido, Calif.
M.F.: Maybe the most telling mock draft in the case of Spiller comes from NFL.com senior writer Pat Kirwan, who projects him to be taken by the Seahawks. Given Kirwan's relationship with coach Pete Carroll, I tend to agree. He also thinks Spiller could "touch the ball 20 times a game as a rookie," between his backfield and special teams duties. The team desperately needs a playmaker on offense, and many have compared Spiller to Chris Johnson because of his speed and versatile skill set. While Julius Jones and Justin Forsett will remain in the mix, neither has the tools or upside to keep Spiller from being Carroll's top option. That doesn't mean he'll see a featured role, as Carroll seems to like committees. But at worst, Spiller would be the team's lead running back and worth a low middle-round pick.
I saw your blog on Jermichael Finley earlier in the week, and I agree with you 100 percent except for one statement. You think Jason Witten should still be taken ahead of Finley? I had Witten on my own fantasy team last season, and he was so inconsistent! He also isn't much of a touchdown threat. I'd rather have Finley! - N. Desjardins, Davie, Fla.
M.F.: I'm a fan of Finley heading into next season, as you can tell from that blog post. I still wouldn't take him ahead of Witten, who has averaged 90 receptions for 1,042 yards since 2007. Sure, his touchdown totals have been a bit disappointing. But do you really think Witten will be held to just two scores in consecutive seasons? I don't. I'd project him for closer to five touchdowns in 2010. The Cowboys tight end is going to see many more targets and finish with better reception and yardage totals than Finley.
I'm a huge Eagles fan, and I keep hearing trade rumors about Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. Who do you think will stay and who is most likely to be traded during the offseason? How will the move affect fantasy football? - P. Rodney, Lansdowne, Pa.
M.F.: I have a hard time believing the Eagles will trade McNabb, who will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2010. Vick has recently expressed interest in playing for the Panthers, but NFL insider Jason La Canfora reports the Eagles will pay Vick the $1.5 million roster bonus he's owed at the end of the week and likely wouldn't deal him until the preseason (if at all). If Vick does land with a team that will use him as its starter, he'll instantly become a viable No. 2 fantasy quarterback. The same holds true of Kolb, who's been rumored to be traded to the Browns this season. Stay tuned.

Kelly's debut quick but memorable

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It seemed like it was over before it started, but the afterglow from the 10-pitch performance is something that stayed with Casey Kelly for a while.

"I don't think I've stopped smiling since I got off the mound," said Kelly, widely regarded as the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's farm system. "It was a good first outing. To have the crowd and some of the people behind me playing defense behind me was a tremendous honor."

Just like Jonathan Papelbon once had his first Spring Training inning with the Red Sox back when he was a much-hyped Minor Leaguer -- and so did Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard -- Wednesday afternoon against Northeastern University was Kelly's first taste of pitching with a Major League team at his back.

Of those 10 pitches in the 1-2-3 first inning, seven were strikes. Two of the outs were strikeouts, both on changeups.

"I was very, very nervous going in," Kelly said. "Once I got on the mound, kind of the competition takes over and you want to go out there and do your best."

Keep in mind that Kelly's heart hadn't felt this type of beat since the Futures Game in St. Louis last July. That, remember, was the last time he pitched in a game.

Kelly finished the 2009 season playing shortstop, and he did the same in the Arizona Fall League. But in December, he made the decision to focus exclusively on becoming a pitcher, which has put him on a faster track to the Major Leagues.

It was news to Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez that Kelly, who is the 28th-ranked prospect according to MLB.com, was once conflicted as to what positional path he wanted to pursue. The way Martinez looked at it, that was a full-fledged pitcher he was calling signs for against Northeastern.

"I just heard that. That's amazing," said Martinez. "Shortstop [and then] going to pitch? That's amazing. I thought he signed as a pitcher. His delivery and all that, it was pretty good."

Not only was Wednesday the first time Kelly pitched for the Red Sox, but it was the first time he pitched against a college team. Though Boston drafted Kelly in the first round of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, he also had the option of accepting a full scholarship to play football at Tennessee.

Kelly might not have even thought much about how he was facing a college team for the first time if not for a telephone conversation he had with his father, Pat, a former Major League player and current coach in the Cincinnati Reds' farm system.

"He called me last night and gave me some grief, saying it was my college debut," said Casey Kelly. "We joked around a little bit about that. He just told me to go out there and have fun. It's just like the game I've been playing my whole life."

And despite the eight months that passed since the scoreless inning he threw in St. Louis, Kelly, who might start this season at Double-A Portland, immediately felt back at home on Wednesday.

"No, it actually felt like I had been doing it for a while now,' said Kelly. "It felt like I really didn't take an eight-month break. It felt good out there. It's kind of like riding a bike. Once you do it once, it kind of comes back to you pretty fast."

There is a buzz that surrounds Kelly, making it easy to forget he is all of 20 years old.

"You get up this morning and I saw [Tennessee football coach] Phil Fulmer getting interviewed about him," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "People are caring about what he's doing. I walked by him yesterday and somebody had mentioned something about our signs, and I saw his eyes. There was a moment of, I think, panic. He's getting a lot thrown at him in a hurry. I do think it's amazing how when you look at him, he doesn't look like a kid that just turned 20 that hasn't pitched."

Wednesday is a glimpse of the life he hopes to settle into in a couple of years.

"I was just excited to put that Red Sox uniform on and get to play on the same field as some of the big leaguers -- Bill Hall, Jacoby, Jed Lowrie and Gil Velazquez," said Kelly. "To throw to Victor Martinez, I think I was more nervous about throwing to him than facing hitters. I felt good out there and I'm excited to get that first outing out of the way."

And when Kelly finished his inning, he got congratulatory handshakes and pats on the back from people he's used to watching on television.

"Yeah, everybody was congratulating me," Kelly said. "That was kind of the coolest part. Just having John Lackey or Clay Buchholz come up and say, 'Good job' to you, that was a special moment for me."

Eventually, the Red Sox won't have enough innings to go around and Kelly will be sent to Minor League camp.

But he will soak up his experience as long as it lasts. Up next for Kelly will be a relief stint against the Orioles on Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET in Sarasota, a game that Buchholz will start and will be aired on MLB.TV.

"He has some great stuff," said Martinez. "He was throwing his fastball in and out, mixing it with his curveball, changeup. He only threw one inning, but he threw pretty good pitches, quality pitches."

Maclin voted Week 16 Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week

Voters on NFL.com have made their choice. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin of the Philadelphia Eagles is the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week for games played on Dec. 25-28.

Maclin made six catches for 92 yards, including a 27-yard grab along the sideline that set up the game-winning field goal in the Eagles' 30–27 victory over the Denver Broncos.

Maclin was selected from among five finalists through fan votes on NFL.com/rookies. The other finalists were wide receivers Austin Collie of the Indianapolis Colts and Mohamed Massaquoi of the Cleveland Browns, cornerback Chris Owens of the Atlanta Falcons and linebacker Brian Cushing of the Houston Texans.

After the regular season, five players will be nominated for Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year honors. Fans can vote for the winner on NFL.com/rookies throughout the month of January. The winner will be announced at a press conference at Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida.

This is Pepsi’s eighth year as the official soft drink sponsor of the NFL and the fifth year that Pepsi will present the NFL Rookie of the Week and NFL Rookie of the Year awards.

Brian Cushing, LB, Houston Texans

Cushing made nine tackles, had one sack and one interception in the Texans' 27–20 win over the Miami Dolphins.

Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Collie led the Colts with 94 receiving yards on six catches in the Colts' 29–15 loss to the New York Jets.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Maclin made six catches for 92 yards, including a 27-yard grab right next to the sideline to set up the game-winning field goal in the Eagles' 30-27 victory vs. the Denver Broncos.

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns

Massaquoi had three receptions for 61 yards, including a second-quarter touchdown, in the Browns' 23–9 win against the Oakland Raiders.

Chris Owens, CB, Atlanta Falcons

Owens made three tackles and had one interception in the Falcons' 31–3 rout of the Buffalo Bills.

Jets CB Strickland ruled out vs. Bengals; P Weatherford might sit

Cornerback Donald Strickland will miss the New York Jets' Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals because of a strained quadriceps, and punter Steve Weatherford is questionable to play with a tweaked hamstring.

Jets coach Rex Ryan said Weatherford was a full participant in practice Friday, but injured his right hamstring. Ryan said the Jets will work out other punters Saturday as a backup plan.

"The good thing about playing the late game is you can spend as much time to heal as possible," Ryan said. "We'll see what the doctors and trainers think and how Steve feels."

Kicker Jay Feely would be the emergency punter if Weatherford plays and aggravates the injury Sunday. The Jets would clinch an AFC wild-card playoff berth if they beat the Bengals, who already have won the AFC North.

Strickland was injured last Sunday while sacking Indianapolis Colts backup quarterback Curtis Painter. Strickland already has missed six games this season with other injuries.

"Sometimes you have years like that," Ryan said of Strickland. "We're hoping that if we can get through this game without him, that he will be ready to go next week."

Defensive end Shaun Ellis is questionable for the Jets after being sent home with an illness.

Cowboys can earn NFC East title, avoid decade-long drought

Ten hot topics for Week 17 Week 17 represents the last chance to make the postseason, be a spoiler or save a coach's job. There is a lot to play for, and contrary to what the Colts are doing by shutting players down, many teams will play to win. 1. Can Dallas finish strong? The Cowboys are one of the storied franchises in the NFL, but haven't won in Week 17 since 1999. They have one last chance to end that streak and need a victory more than ever. The Eagles come to Dallas with the NFC East title on the line. 2. Spoiler in the Cards? Last week, seven teams with nothing to play for but pride had the chance to be a spoiler. I thought the Panthers had the best chance to deliver and they did with a rout of the Giants. This week, the Panthers can make the Saints miserable but can't impact their playoff situation. So it's down to the Raiders hosting the Ravens. Oakland did it last year when they knocked the Bucs out of the playoffs in Week 17 and got their coach and general manager fired. The Raiders have wins over the Eagles, Steelers, Broncos and Bengals this year so it is possible. Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press Brett Favre and the Vikings need a win to have a shot at earning a bye. 3. Time to pick it up No teams have more to be concerned about than New Orleans and Minnesota. Both teams seem to have lost their mojo and need a win before the playoffs start, especially the Vikings, who are playing for a bye. I'd like to see both teams play their starters for the entire game and get back to the high scoring and solid defense that were their trademarks for much of the season. 4. Just play the game! I love the way the Steelers go about their business. They let their play do the talking most of the time, but that wasn't the case when LaMarr Woodley said the Patriots and Bengals would "lay down" this weekend to keep the Steelers out of the playoffs. Pittsburgh needs to win a tough game in Miami to even keep its slim playoff hopes alive. The Steelers only have themselves to blame for being in this position with losses to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns during a five-game losing streak. Now their terrific young linebacker thinks the Bengals and Patriots will lose on purpose to keep the once mighty Steelers out of the playoffs. Don't think so! 5. Source of motivation The Bengals already locked up a division crown and could earn the No. 3 seed. They didn't have one player make the Pro Bowl and that's the first time this decade a 10-win team in the playoffs wasn't represented. It is hard to understand how this could happen. The only other AFC team without a Pro Bowler was 3-12 Kansas City. I hope the Bengals take their frustration out on their opponents starting with the Jets and well into the playoffs. Wade Payne / Associated Press Titans RB Chris Johnson can make history in the season finale. 6. Chasing milestones Three players to keep an eye on are Titans running back Chris Johnson, Browns running back Jerome Harrison and 49ers tight end Vernon Davis. Johnson needs 75 yards to break Marshall Faulk's NFL record of 2,429 total yards in a season and I think he gets it. Johnson is 128 yards rushing short of 2,000 and should get that as well. Finally, he needs 234 rushing yards to break the single-season mark. Since he has never rushed for that much in a game he should fall short, although he is facing a Seattle team that has played like the season ended weeks ago. As for Harrison, he has exploded with 434 yards rushing in the past two weeks and needs 214 yards to have the greatest three-game stretch in league history. In 1976, O.J. Simpson had 647 yards rushing over three games. Davis was thrown off the field just a year ago by his coach. This season, he's a captain of the 49ers and needs two touchdowns to break the all-time tight end touchdown record of 13 held by Antonio Gates. 7. How have Super Bowl winners finished? 7. How have Super Bowl winners finished? They usually win games in December. Since 2000, the eventual Super Bowl champs have gone 31-10 in the last month of the regular season. Only the 2006 Colts had a losing record (2-3) before they won the Lombardi Trophy. At the end Sunday, look back at the December record of the playoff teams for a hint about what's to come in February. 8. Don't expect a lot of openings Week 17 games are always followed by several coaches being fired. As usual, there is much speculation about the potential openings this year. There's little doubt Jim Zorn will get the news Monday in Washington, but don't be surprised if many owners resist the temptation to fire their coach. There is labor uncertainty and most owners won't want to pay the fired coach as well as a new coach, especially if a lockout becomes a reality in 2011. The one driving force that could see a coach or two getting a pink slip is a large number of no shows at a game. Check the attendance of the games where coaches are in trouble. 9. That's Moore like it John Fox has a very bright light shining in his locker room in Matt Moore, who looks like the guy to rebuild this franchise around. Moore has one more chance to solidify his position and faces the Saints without WR Steve Smith. A win in this game would be a big statement. Moore is 3-1 as a starter compared to Jake Delhomme's 4-7 mark. In his four starts, Moore has also bested Delhomme in several other key areas, including completion percentage (63.1 percent to 55.5), passing yards per game (207 to 183) and passer rating (106.8 to 59.4). 10. Beyond the playoffs The Falcons are out of the playoff picture but are driven by the opportunity to have their first back-to-back winning seasons in team history. It will be no easy task as they head to Tampa Bay. The Bucs beat the Saints last week and feel like they have to win to save their young coach's job. The Texans have more to play for than their playoff hopes. They are looking for their first winning season in franchise history. Brian Cushing and Eric Winston both told me this week that they want to be part of the team that did it first and they want it now.

Titans DT Brown not able to play in season finale vs. Seahawks

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Titans defensive tackle Tony Brown will miss Sunday's season finale against the Seattle Seahawks because of a knee problem.

Brown, who has five sacks, originally injured his quadriceps during a Dec. 13 game against the St. Louis Rams. He said Friday that blood from that injury has leaked into the knee area, causing pain and swelling.

"It's just real stiff, and the range of motion is really hard to get," Brown said. "I had to warm it up, but it's been stiff on me."

Brown said he hasn't been feeling like himself the past few games.

"I would definitely be hurting the team if I go out there and can't finish the game," he said.

Titans coach Jeff Fisher said it's possible that Brown could need cleanup surgery after the season.

Meanwhile, center Kevin Mawae, recuperating from an elbow injury, fully practiced Friday and is probable to play against the Seahawks. Cornerback Ryan Mouton was limited in practice and is questionable.

Offensive tackle Troy Kropog didn't practice and is questionable with a calf injury.

Cribbs believes Holmgren will uphold Browns' promises of new deal

BEREA, Ohio -- Josh Cribbs is eager to meet the new president of the Cleveland Browns. Mike Holmgren can write the large check that Cribbs can't wait to cash.

Cribbs said Friday that he's still confident he'll have a new contract soon, despite a recent front-office shakeup that has delayed negotiations while giving full authority to Holmgren.

Cribbs, who has been asking for a new deal since training camp, said a few weeks ago that the team assured him something would be done by the end of the season. With the Browns' final game two days away, that doesn't seem likely. But Cribbs said Holmgren already has been in contact with his agent, J.R. Rickert.

"I'm pretty sure he (Holmgren) is going to start off on a good foot and take care of me," Cribbs said. "He knows football. I've got a lot of faith in him."

A call to Rickert by The Associated Press on Friday wasn't returned.

Cribbs says he has twice been promised by the Browns that he will receive a new deal, but he's still playing on a six-year, $6.77 million contract that has three years remaining on it. Cribbs said Browns owner Randy Lerner told him after last season that he would receive a new deal, then the team started over by firing general manager Phil Savage and coach Romeo Crennel.

Browns coach Eric Mangini wanted to see what he had in Cribbs before giving him a new contract, then watched Cribbs become the most valuable player on a 4-11 team entering Sunday's finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Earlier this season, Cribbs became the NFL's career leader in kickoff returns for touchdowns with eight.

"It's going to get done," Cribbs said of his contract. "I'd prefer it to be done before the end of the season, but beggars can't be choosers. I've waited this long."

Holmgren will go to work on fixing the Browns next week, when he is expected to arrive in Cleveland. Holmgren hasn't decided whether Mangini will return for a second season, but he said he wouldn't need long to make up his mind.

Cribbs and Mangini were at odds during training camp because of the contract, but the current three-game winning streak has won over the Browns' most dynamic player. Cribbs believes Mangini deserves another year in Cleveland.

"I think he's done a very good job of turning this program around," Cribbs said. "It'd be crazy (for Holmgren) to say, 'You're coach of the Browns, I won a Super Bowl, you're gone.' C'mon now, one year? I believe he deserves another year or so to turn this program around and get us winning games. I'd love to see him back."